There are few, established big players (Linux, Apache etc.) and lots of small utilities?
Here's my take: my prediction is that MOST open-source projects will end up dead. This is natural selection in action. Some will rise above others and finally become big players themselves. They will find their evolutionary niche, using resources (developers' time) from that niche that are available to them (the developers want the thing to work).
A year is a really short time in this cycle: can you think of any great new innovations in the closed-source world during the last year that aren't just new versions of the old big players' work?
Let's look again in five years: by then some of the current small players will have slowly crept up into being big players, into the community consciousness --- and at that time someone may again complain about the same thing. Why? Since once something gets to the big player stage, it's difficult to remember the time it wasn't - do you remember when Linux wasn't a big player? Microsoft?
The thing is, these things come so slowly that you don't realize your world view is changing, that you're beginning to see some project as a big player when it slowly gains momentum.